Grassroots enthusiasm for President Trump and the Republican Party’s expansive get-out-the-vote operation turned the forecasted Democrat tsunami into a ripple. With gains in the Senate, Republicans defied history, an achievement reached only four times in history. Despite record House retirements and massive Democrat candidate fundraising advantages, Republicans stand in a much stronger position than nearly anyone could have predicted. Democrats will now have to come to the table to work with President Trump and Republicans to keep our economy strong, secure our borders, and continue to move the country in the right direction.
When the dust settles, despite the hype, President Trump will see fewer losses than both Obama and Clinton in their first midterms.
Since the 1920’s, the party that controls the White House has historically lost House seats and Senate seats in a president’s first term.
There have only been four midterms since 1934 that a President’s party has picked up a Senate seat. Not losing a seat – let alone gaining a number of seats – is historic.
Barack Obama’s loss of 63 seats was the most lost since 1938.
This is in part thanks to Trump doing more than any other President in history to support GOP candidates and an unprecedented GOTV effort by the RNC.
The President had attended 53 rallies across 24 states since the start of his administration. He held a remarkable 30 rallies after Labor Day.
11 in competitive House Congressional Districts.
And 19 in states with competitive Senatorial and Gubernatorial races.
Republicans had tremendous victories in 2010, 2014, and also 2016 which in turn lead to historic levels of Republican elected officials at nearly every level. Democrats will come nowhere close to chipping into those gains.
Democrats are going to have a hard time in 2020.
While Republicans continue to tout record-low unemployment and a roaring economy – the new Democrat house is leading with gridlock and investigations. This is exactly what voters have said they don’t want.
Republicans maintaining control of the Senate keeps the GOP in position to continue driving the President’s agenda forward.
That’s because the Senate chamber controls judicial confirmations, which allowing Trump to continue filling federal courts with conservative judges, and executive branch appointments.
There is a significant amount of blocking and tackling of Democrat legislation that can and will take place with a GOP-controlled Senate.
Republicans held House losses to a minimum.
DCCC boldly outlined 101 targeted races in this year’s midterm elections – their most expansive list in at least a decade.
– Why this matters? Because of the RNC’s largest field operation to date, coupled with the number of voter contacts made, volunteers recruited, and money raised, we were able to hold these losses to a minimum.
Republicans closed a significant enthusiasm gap among its voters within the last 6+ months:
For about the first eight months of the year, polls showed that Democrats held “an aggregate 12-point advantage.”
Throughout the cycle, the RNC raised record funds, outpacing the DNC at every turn.
In cycle-to-date fundraising, the RNC raised $270 million compared to the DNC’s $136 million.
Thanks to the unprecedented fundraising, the RNC was able to invest a record amount of $275 million in the 2018 election cycle, our largest investment in our ground game which included:
– Over 550 staffers on the ground across 29 states.
– More than 25,000 RLI fellows trained
– Over 200,000 traditional volunteers recruited.
Thanks to their work, we were able to take our message to more voters than ever before making 2.6 billion voter contacts.
72 Million+ traditional, volunteer, voter contacts made (door knocking and phone calls)
– 2.1 BILLION+ emails sent
– 32.8 Million+ digital petitions or surveys have been completed
– 266 Million+ calls made to retrain voter scores (part of our data operation)
– 55.3 Million+ targeted mail pieces
– 20.2 Million+ GOTV phone calls
These efforts surpassed the historic number of voter contacts done during the 2016 presidential election.
– $10 million investment on digital GOTV efforts in the final weeks including $3 million dedicated to peer-to-peer texting.
This is the largest mobilization ever by the RNC.
President Trump on the Campaign Trail.
Since Labor Day, the President’s rallies have drawn a staggeringly large number of approximately half a million individuals
More important than the rally locations, though, is the direct participation of candidates in competitive races at these rallies.
In the President’s 30 rallies since Labor Day, 43 candidates in competitive races participated at his rallies:
– 16 House candidates in competitive races
– 15 Senate candidates in competitive races
– 12 Gubernatorial candidates in competitive races
The President deployed the Vice President early in the year to begin campaigning for candidates.
– Total number of events to support House Races: 55
– Total number of events to support Senate Races: 36
– Total number of events to support Gubernatorial Races: 27
Odds were stacked against us as well.
– The House had a massive number of GOP retirements – in total 43 House Republicans. This is the most for the GOP since 1930.
Conversely, this cycle was the fewest retirements by Democrats since the 2008 election.
– Why this matters? The power of incumbency is a real thing – and it provides a major boost to the candidate on the ballot with the “i” next to their name.
The probability that an incumbent in the US House is reelected rose dramatically over the last half-century – standing at nearly 95%.
– Democrats out-fundraised GOP candidates:
– Democrat challengers out-raised Republican House incumbents in 92 districts.
Per the Economist, “By the time this year’s mid-terms are over, contributions from individual donors to Democratic candidates will top $1 billion, compared to Republicans’ $500 million.”
– Why this matters? While the RNC raised record-breaking amounts of money, that money doesn’t go towards TV or air time for candidates. This Democrat cash advantage allowed some to launch major advertising campaigns in August – earlier than ever before.
President Trump Will Continue to Deliver Historic Wins for the American People:
– Under President Trump’s leadership, American workers and families have already seen historic wins.
– On the Economy: The Administration is lifting up marginalized and sidelined American workers and helping them find good-paying, family-sustaining careers. Wages for American workers are rising and optimism is at record levels.
– On Immigration: The Trump Administration believes we need to defend national sovereignty, ensure public safety, protect American jobs and wages, and stop the flow of poisonous drugs into our communities.
– On Healthcare: President Trump’s Administration is working to protect Medicare, add more choice, affordability and lower drug prices.
Despite the fact that Congressional Democrats have obstructed and opposed President Trump’s winning agenda at every step.
– On the Economy: Congressional Democrats want to raise taxes, spend more of our taxpayers’ hard-earned money and overregulate.
– On Immigration: Congressional Democrats have come to support the extreme position of open borders, amnesty for illegal aliens, abolishing ICE and funding sanctuary cities.
– On Healthcare: Congressional Democrats support socialized medicine that would be a disaster for everyone especially to Medicare.
President Trump is committed to working with members of both parties to deliver results for the American people.